This Is A Big Whoops
The “expert” who sewed panic and shut down a nation due to an astronomically flawed model is now saying his estimated death numbers were wrong …no shit Sherlock.
These are the questions some of us have already been asking, but our voices were silenced because of the Imperial College of London’s study that said this would kill 2.2 million people in the U.S. and 500,000 in the U.K. Now, the author of that study himself has essentially recanted his projection, whether he admits it or not.
Yesterday, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology that he is now “reasonably confident” there will not be an ICU shortage in London and that the fatalities will not exceed 20,000 in the U.K. He predicts that two-thirds of those would have died by the end of the year due to other conditions anyway. And rather than this lasting 18 months, as he projected in his first paper, which widely drove policies in the U.K. and U.S., Ferguson now predicts the virus will peak in “two or three weeks.” Here…
At the risk of sounding cruel, or perhaps even tempting fate by G-d forbid catching the Yellow Plague myself, it’s now time to face facts: Chinese Coronavirus COVID-19, while certainly dangerous or even lethal to some, is no reason to shut down our society. If we are going to quarantine anyone, it should be the elderly and those whose compromised health puts them at greater risk to both catch and spread the contagion. Besides that, I think President Trump should lift the state of emergency definitely by Easter and really by April 5th.
The “evidence” and reasoning that has us in a state of siege and limbo is now provably flawed. If we continue to do things based on its premise we will do damage to the nation by orders of magnitude greater than whatever the highest death toll and hospitalization will be.
Let’s get back to normal now. NOW. Keep reading…..
4 thoughts on “This Is A Big Whoops”
1 out of 31 researchers changes their projections and that’s supposed to impress me?
Imperial College still stands behind their initial projection by the way (you could look it up)
Looked at the news lately?
I just don’t get people that aren’t willing to take this seriously yet. This thing’s just getting started. Cases are doubling every 2 to 3 days just in this country. That’s a geometric curve, not a linear one, so by the end of April, we’re looking at around 186 MILLION people catching this in this country, IF WE MAINTAIN CURRENT QUARANTINE PRACTICES.
Wake up.
Ned – I guess we will agree to disagree. I understand the concern and the urgency, I just think there are different ways to handle it rather than shutting down the country….that is my opinion. I am still working and I don’t see any work stoppage due to the virus in my line of work, (construction). If the global economy crumbles all of the quarantines in the world aren’t going to save you or me from the consequences. The virus will be the least of your worries.
The global economy has been FUBAR for years, it just needed a match. The debt levels are sky-high, and long before Covid had even been mentioned outside of China some bank(s) had started to fail – check when the fed had to step in and provide liquidity to the repo market… was in Nov, maybe Oct. If Covid hadn’t taken the economy down it’d have started to cave in maybe 9-15 months anyway. Pretty sure everyone knows we were doing what we could to keep the stock market inflated until the election. All those debt issuance’s to buy back stock while debt was cheap – is cheap, not need bailing out. The Fed is already buying corporate debt, and soon (although I think they’re already doing it give Boeing’s unexplained stock valuation) outright buying stocks. Not too much longer now they’ll own it all.
I agree with the first guy on Covid btw – the people I know that have died from it, seemed healthy enough when I last talked to them, granted that was last year, but… I’m going to say the 2 people I know were pretty healthy actually… they were in their 60’s.
Crappy data from China and Italy. Crappy testing kits from China. Nothing from ‘Murica. He took his best shot at trying to keep the body count down. Business, creative business, can recover. The bodies would just stink. Defend v the irreversible outcome and back off later as the situation matures.
Remember, if the paper shufflers installed by Labour and the Corruptocrats were half competent, they might have had a better response ready. They might have actually had a plan. This poor SOB at least gave it a shot. Hoo RAH! That’s courage. Likewise President Trump.
From the (probably mutilated) Soviet jargon, “Good enough NOW is far better than perfect when it is too late”.